Published and Accepted Papers
Behavioral Foundations of Nested Stochastic Choice and Nested Logit (with Gerelt Tserenjigmid) - Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 130(9): 2411-2461, September 2022. [arXiv]
Idea: Nested logit is the most widely applied generalization of multinomial logit, but it has not been behaviorally characterized. Until now.
Finalist, 2023 Exeter Prize
Twisting the Truth: Foundations of Wishful Thinking - Theoretical Economics, Vol. 15(3): 989–1022, July 2020.
Idea: Wishful thinking based on an endowment "twists" beliefs a bit. Behavioral consequences inside.
Idea: What can we say about a satisficer with an unobserved and changing notion of "good enough?"
Idea: Multinomial logit is great, but what if a decision maker pays more attention to some alternatives than others? It turns out you can identify these "focal" alternatives and distinguish utility from bias.
Idea: Menu variation is great, but what if all you can change is the order of alternatives? Can we still learn about preferences? Yes.
Idea: How should a set of beliefs be updated? One way is to first select those that are "pretty likely" given the data, then use Bayes' rule. You can find a behavioral analysis of this and more inside.
Idea: How does a status quo interact with random attention?
This paper combines and supersedes "Thinking Inside the Box: Status Quo Bias and Stochastic Consideration" (Kovach 2016) and "Stochastic Attention and Search" (Suleymanov 2018).
Working Papers (My arXiv page)
Minimum Distance Belief Updating with General Information (with Adam Dominiak and Gerelt Tserenjigmid)
Idea: You are told that some outcome of interest will occur with some range of probabilities. How do you update your beliefs? The answer to this and more inside.
Inertial Updating (with Adam Dominiak and Gerelt Tserenjigmid) - under review - NEW!
Idea: A framework for belief updating unifying Bayesian and non-Bayesian updating rules, along with rules for updating on null-events.
Conservative Updating - under revision
Idea: Some people do not change their beliefs enough when provided information . Here's a preference based characterization of such behavior.
Selling to Wishful Thinkers (with Tommy Chan) - coming soon, preliminary draft available upon request.
Idea: Some people are overestimate the chances of good events. You can exract surplus from such wishful thinkers by introducing uncertainty.
The Focal Quantal Response Equilibrium (with Gerelt Tserenjigmid) - under review - NEW!
Idea: Some options draw more attention than others, even after controlling for their utilities. We incorporate this idea into a strategic setting and show accounting for focality explains some experimenal findings.
Learning News Bias: Misspecifications and Consequences (with L. Hu and A. Li) - NEW!
Idea: How do you learn about media sources when you misperceive the bias in news reports? Learn about that and more here.
Work in Progress
Sincerity and the Doctrinal Paradox (with Alan Miller) - slides
Revealed economic preferences of Chat GPT (with Jeongbin Kim, Kyu-Min Lee, Euncheol Shin, and Hector Tzavellas)
Motivated Reasoning in Probability Updating (An experiment, with Matthew Chao)
This study is supported by a grant from the Moore Foundation
Permanent Working Papers
Thinking Inside the Box: Status Quo Bias and Stochastic Consideration - working paper - these results have been incorporated into "Reference Dependence and Random Attention."
Ordered Surprises and Conditional Probability Systems (with Adam Dominiak and Gerelt Tserenjigmid) - major results have been incorporated into "Inertial Updating."
Idea: How do you revise your beliefs when you're surprised? We introduce a notion of ordered (im)possibility and show that it provides a simpler foundation for CPS.