Research

Published and Accepted Papers

• Behavioral Foundations of Nested Stochastic Choice and Nested Logit (with Gerelt Tserenjigmid) - forthcoming at Journal of Political Economy

  • Idea: Nested logit is the most widely applied generalization of multinomial logit, but it has not been behaviorally characterized. Until now.

• Twisting the Truth: Foundations of Wishful Thinking - Theoretical Economics, Vol. 15(3): 989–1022, July 2020.

  • Idea: Wishful thinking based on an endowment "twists" beliefs a bit. Behavioral consequences inside.

• Satisficing with a Variable Threshold (with Levent Ulku) - Journal of Mathematical Economics, Vol. 87: 67-76, March 2020. slides

  • Idea: What can we say about a satisficer with an unobserved and changing notion of "good enough?"

• The Focal Luce Model (with Gerelt Tserenjigmid) - forthcoming at American Economic Journal: Microeconomics - online appendix

  • Idea: Multinomial logit is great, but what if a decision maker pays more attention to some alternatives than others? It turns out you can identify these "focal" alternatives and distinguish utility from bias.

• A Model of Stochastic Choice from Lists (with Levent Ulku and Yuhta Ishii) - forthcoming at Journal of Mathematical Economics - slides

  • Idea: Menu variation is great, but what if all you can change is the order of alternatives? Can we still learn about preferences? Yes.

Working Papers (My arXiv page)

• Minimum Distance Belief Updating with General Information (with Adam Dominiak and Gerelt Tserenjigmid)

  • Idea: You are told that some outcome of interest will occur with some range of probabilities. How do you update your beliefs? The answer to this and more inside.

• Inertial Updating (with Adam Dominiak and Gerelt Tserenjigmid)

  • draft coming soon!

• Ordered Surprises and Conditional Probability Systems (with Adam Dominiak and Gerelt Tserenjigmid) - under review

  • Idea: How do you revise your beliefs when you're surprised? We introduce a notion of ordered (im)possibility and show that it provides a simpler foundation for CPS.

• Conservative Updating - under review

  • Idea: Some people do not change their beliefs enough when provided information . Here's a preference based characterization of such behavior.

• Ambiguity and Partial Bayesian Updating - under review

  • Idea: How should a set of beliefs be updated? One way is to first select those that are "pretty likely" given the data, then use Bayes' rule. You can find a behavioral analysis of this and more inside.

• Reference Dependence and Random Attention (with Elchin Suleymanov) - under review

  • Idea: How does a status quo interact with random attention?

  • This paper combines and supersedes "Thinking Inside the Box: Status Quo Bias and Stochastic Consideration" (Kovach 2016) and "Stochastic Attention and Search" (Suleymanov 2018).

Work in Progress

• Regret and Bounded Rationality In Games: The Focal Quantal Response Equilibrium (with Gerelt Tserenjigmid) - slides

• Sincerity and the Doctrinal Paradox (with Alan Miller) - slides

• Motivated Reasoning in Probability Updating (An experiment, with Matthew Chao)

  • This study is supported by a grant from the Moore Foundation

• Frame Sensitive Voters and Electoral Competition

Permanent Working Papers

• Thinking Inside the Box: Status Quo Bias and Stochastic Consideration - working paper - these results have been incorporated into "Reference Dependence and Random Attention."